It looks like Canada is headed for a Liberal minority government


There are still two weeks remaining until the election. That means that any and all predictions and polls are subject to change. But, at the moment, it looks like Justin Trudeau will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

√Čric Grenier's CBC Poll Tracker still shows a slight seat advantage for the Conservatives. As of today the Liberals have a polling average of 32.4%, compared to 31.6% for the Conservatives and 25.3% for the NDP. Broken down by riding, if the election were today: the Conservatives would win 122 seats, the Liberals 118 and the NDP 96. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story though.

In the last week, the momentum has almost entirely belonged to the Liberals. Most recent polls show them in the lead but the Nanos/Globe & Mail-CTV tracking poll seems to show the trend best. Since September 28, the Conservatives have gone from 32.8 to 31 percent. The NDP has gone from 26.1 to 22.8 percent and the Liberals have gone from 31.7 to 35.6 percent, a rise of 4 points in a week.

With two weeks to go, that would only mean the Liberals were having a good week but there is an X factor (or an ABC factor) which should put the Liberals over the top. Since the beginning of the election, pollsters have been commenting on the large numbers of undecided voters.

As of September 21st, just 2 weeks ago, the CBC said; "The number of undecided voters can vary widely from poll to poll, depending on methodology and how these voters are defined. The latest numbers put the tally of undecideds at anywhere from seven per cent to 20 per cent. How these numbers have shifted since the campaign began, however, is more revealing: they haven't."

There is reason to believe that much of the 'undecided' vote may be attributable to 'Anything But Conservative' (ABC). An article published at Huffington Post by Bruce Cheadle of the The Canadian Press lays out the evidence. According to the article there are not only a large number of undecided voters who want to ditch the Tories but soft support for the Liberals and NDP. By 'soft support' I mean voters who have stated a preference but said that they are willing to switch to get rid of Harper.
""I sense a greater level of volatility — potential for volatility — in this election than ever before," said David Coletto of Abacus Data, whose latest survey has the Conservatives at 30 per cent nationally, smack dab between the NDP (31 per cent) and the Liberals (28 per cent). That same Abacus online panel survey found 24 per cent "undecided," a number that jumped to 70 per cent when respondents were asked if they might change their mind."
ABC won't help the Liberals in every riding. In my riding of Oshawa, for example, the Liberals are barely pulling double digits and the ABC vote will likely swing to the NDP. However, with a 13.8% difference between the Liberals and the NDP in the latest tracking polls, it is no longer a 3-way tie. Many anti-Harper voters will now begin to see the Liberals as having the best chance to beat the Conservatives.

In other words, with two weeks to go in the election, the Liberals current momentum may lead to greater and greater momentum and, with the Conservatives having little room for growth, a Liberal minority appears to be in the works.
Previous
Next Post »